Tuesday, June 19, 1945

HOW LONG BEFORE THE INVASION OF JAPAN? I’d love to believe that U.S. forces are getting ready right now to invade Kyshu, or any of the Japanese home islands, as Radio Tokyo proclaimed the other day. And maybe it could happen. Still, there’s plenty of smart money out there that says it isn’t possible, not now and not for a long time yet. If you want to know why this is so, look up the recent article in Collier’s, "Transfer to the East," by Quentin Reynolds. As he begins, Mr. Reynolds sums up the gulf between our V-E giddiness and the demands of the Pacific war in the months ahead --

"It’s all over in Europe, we shout; now mopping up the Japs will be easy. And say, what about a new car, a new radio? But, such optimism is founded only on a dream. The boys who beat Germany will have to join in the war against Japan. There’ll be no homecoming for them, no cars or electric iceboxes for civilians, for a long time to come. . . . To defeat Japan, we shall need 5,000,000 men in the Pacific."

Mr. Reynolds then follows a hypothetical Army division from Europe as it’s transferred to the Pacific to take part in the invasion --

"Nearly three months will have elapsed since D-Day. That is about as fast as a division can be rested, regrouped, re-equipped and loaded. It will take about 30 large ships to carry our division and its material. . . . Our division [will] go from Antwerp to Panama, and, perhaps, to Manila or Okinawa. It’s a long trip -- 14,000 miles to Manila -- and we’re not a fast convoy. That trip is going to take around seven weeks. So, by the time we land and our equipment is unloaded, some five months will have elapsed, since V-E Day. Those months are going to be rather trying for the folks at home. They may get impatient at the lack of invasion news. . . . After that we are put into training. We’ll grumble about this at first. We’ve fought for three years all over Europe. Why train now? Then we find out. For one thing, the terrain is a lot different. Here we’ll have to plow through rice fields and swamps. . . . Yeah, we reluctantly admit, we do need 45 days of additional training. Dozens and dozens of other divisions arrive at this and other staging areas and go through the same process . . . . Then we hear rumors. We are going 'up forward.' Where? Nobody knows. Maybe it’ll be Shikoku or Kyushu, or Taihoku on Formosa, or Nagasaki, or Saishu. These names are as familiar to us now as the names of Cologne and Aachen were nine months ago when our division was fighting in the Rhineland. Nine months? That’s right. It’s nine months after V-E Day, and our division hasn’t fired a shot."

Mr. Reynolds estimates it will take ten months, total, from V-E Day before we have the forces in place to invade any of Japan’s three main home islands. In other words, next March. And when we’re finally ready, our men will plunge into the fight of their lives --

"Let’s take a look at Japan’s strength. So far, we haven’t met her first-line troops, but only men placed on islands to fight a delaying action. They did so, and you know how costly they made our victories. When we go into Japan, and possibly China, we’ll find some 6,000,000 Japanese troops spoiling for a fight. Right now they have 4,000,000 men, but, in addition, they have one million Manchurian and Chinese puppets organized as auxiliary military units. And during the past few months the Japanese have accelerated conscription and are training an additional one million young men. They’ll be ready for us. And if you doubt the courage and aggressiveness of the Japanese soldier, ask any Marine who was at Tarawa or Iwo. . . . During her two and a half years of exploitation of East Asia, Japan has accumulated a huge stock pile of strategic materials. . . . It’s 6200 nautical miles from San Francisco to Manila, 1650 more to Tokyo. We’ll have to bring every weapon, every bit of blood plasma, every can of C rations along that route, or routes of similar distances. . . . We are going to have to overwhelm Japan with superior forces, and it will take ten months to get those superior forces ready to attack. Any attack on a smaller scale would be suicidal. We’d be fools if we didn’t face the realities of the picture and lock up our dreams for a while."

Tough words, and one can only hope the reality won’t be as hard as this. But there’s no known reason right now to think otherwise. Even if we are in a position right now to invade Kyshu, and even if Kyushu’s defenses are soft, we’ll still have to take the other home islands, and dislodge the Japanese from China. And there’s no reason at all to think any of that can be finished quickly, once we get started.

posted by Michael 8:09:00 AM

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MODERN ROMANCE. From Time magazine’s Miscellany section -- "In Lincolnshire, England, the Chronicle ran the following advertisement: 'Owner of tractor wishes to correspond with widow who owns a modern Foster thrasher; object matrimony; send photograph of machine.'"

posted by Michael 8:06:00 AM

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Sunday, June 17, 1945

JAPAN SAYS INVASION IS NEAR. It’s hard to believe that we could be ready to land on any of the Japanese home islands so soon, but Radio Tokyo says the signs are there. From an A.P. story this morning --

"The Japanese, say Radio Tokyo, were getting set for an invasion which, it added, might be in the making at the present time. It reported an increase in American invasion ships around Okinawa; told of steps to make Kyushu Island a powerful fortress and said even women and the aged will be called upon to bear arms in defense of the empire. . . . With the Okinawa garrison on its last legs, Tokyo said Kyushu was being made into ‘one large fortress.’ Kyushu, southernmost of the main Japanese islands, is but 325 miles north of Okinawa. A sudden increase in the number of American cargo ships and landing craft around Okinawa was reported by the Agency Domei. It guessed this might mean ‘an enemy scheme to launch fresh operations near the Japanese homeland.’ Against this menace, Domei announced that ‘two-way and three-way defenses at all points possible’ had been erected on Kyushu."

This could be dismissed as propaganda to scare the home folks, but I recall Japan sounding similar alarms just before we landed on Iwo and Okinawa. Still, given the amount of time and careful preparation that went into D-Day, it’s hard to believe that we would rush pell-mell into invading Japan, as we’re only beginning the immense job of transferring some three million fighting men from Europe and re-training them to finish the Pacific war.

Then again...what if our intelligence has learned the Kyushu defenses are much softer than we previously believed? Wouldn’t it make sense to strike now, with what forces we have in place, rather than give Tokyo time to fortify the island into a large-scale Okinawa? Wouldn’t General MacArthur be inclined to strike rather than wait?

So, I’d say there’s a chance -- who knows how much or little of one -- that something big is about to happen.

posted by Michael 8:03:00 AM

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HERE’S A NEW JOB FOR EISENHOWER. As Washington, D.C. prepares for a mammoth celebration in honor General Eisenhower’s visit tomorrow, there’s been a wave of speculation in the press about what Ike should do next. George Connery speculates in today’s Washington Post that Eisenhower might be named to a Pacific command, or replace General Marshall as chief of staff. But I like the suggestion in Barnet Nover’s column better --

"It is not too much to say that the future of the world depends on whether Russia and the United States learn to get along. If they do, no problem in the realm of international relations will prove unsolvable. If they do not, even unimportant disputes involving remote nations might develop into festering sores plaguing the international body politic. . . . As supreme Allied commander in Europe, General Eisenhower not only displayed remarkable gifts as an organizer and strategist; he also proved himself to be, par excellence, a statesman in uniform. What he did in the way of combining British and American officers and units into a coherent and effective whole is unexampled in the history of coalition war. Now that his military task is finished, the talents he possesses could hardly be better employed than in making General Eisenhower our Ambassador to Russia. The greatest of our diplomatic friction points requires the presence of an American of his stature, his ability, his remarkable capacity to get along with people, his superlative common sense."

posted by Michael 7:59:00 AM

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A NEW DAD WITH REASON TO BE NERVOUS. From Time magazine’s Miscellany section -- "In Stockholm, Sweden, a mother who had just given birth to her fifth child talked with two wardmates who had each had twins, discovered that all five children had the same father."

posted by Michael 7:56:00 AM

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